The transmissibility of Covid-19: a modelling study in China

Baosheng Yin

doi:10.1117/12.2669564

24 March 2023 The transmissibility of Covid-19: a modelling study in China

Baosheng Yin

Proceedings Volume 12611, Second International Conference on Biological Engineering and Medical Science (ICBioMed 2022); 126113Z (2023) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2669564
Event: International Conference on Biological Engineering and Medical Science (ICBioMed2022), 2022, Oxford, United Kingdom

Abstract

Covid-19 is a serious disease for human. It can be easily spread between human. In order to model the spread of Covid-19 and determinate the appropriate policy by government, I use the SEIRD model, which is extended from SIR model. In this paper, the SEIRD model studies the transmissibility of Covid-19 in China. This work first gives out the flowchart of the SEIRD model and then I derive the differential equation and find out the disease-free equilibrium based on the flowchart. Then I calculate the generation matrix and basic reproduction number which is directly related to the transmissibility of the virus. At last, the sensitivity analysis analyzes the different impact from different parameter. From that, we can find out the best way to control the transmission. The result is that the parameter that refer to strictness has a great impact on the spread of Covid-19. However, it doesn’t have to be as large as possible since the Covid can be well controlled with an appropriate value of strictness and smallest negative effect for people. This paper tries to find out the best extent of strictness of policy that is able to control the transmission.

Citation Download Citation

Baosheng Yin "The transmissibility of Covid-19: a modelling study in China", Proc. SPIE 12611, Second International Conference on Biological Engineering and Medical Science (ICBioMed 2022), 126113Z (24 March 2023); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2669564

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