ULTIMATE-Subaru is a next-generation wide-field NIR imaging camera with ground layer adaptive optics, being developed for the Subaru telescope. Here we present the current sensitivity performance estimates for the instrument. In the ideal conditions of good (25%) seeing with GLAO, airmass of 1 and an hour exposure time, we reach 5σ point source depths of 25.6, 25.5, 25.2 and 25.4 mags in YJHKs respectively. The ULTIMATE sensitivities show an improvement of 0.4−0.6 mag over MOIRCS in broad-band filters under the same observing conditions (without GLAO). With GLAO there is a further improvement of 0.2∼0.4 mags in depth across all bands compared to natural seeing, in addition to the significant enhancement in image quality, i.e. FWHM up to a factor of 2 over natural seeing. We have also modeled the fractional noise contribution in the NIR from sky background, telescope thermal background, moon background and read noise. We find that sky background is the dominant source of noise across most NIR bands, apart from the K-band, where the thermal emission from the telescope becomes a significant source of noise. Our results indicate that K-band observations using ULTIMATE-Subaru with GLAO under ideal observing conditions could potentially reach sensitivities comparable to those of the Roman telescope, given that instrument thermal emission remains an important noise component in both ground and space telescopes at this wavelength.
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