Risk analysis of liquefied cargo shipping based on fuzzy accident tree

Meiling Han; Hanwen Fu; Liang Yu; Lin Cong; Shining Lu

doi:10.1117/12.3039515

28 August 2024 Risk analysis of liquefied cargo shipping based on fuzzy accident tree

Meiling Han, Hanwen Fu, Liang Yu, Lin Cong, Shining Lu

Proceedings Volume 13251, Ninth International Conference on Electromechanical Control Technology and Transportation (ICECTT 2024); 1325140 (2024) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3039515
Event: 9th International Conference on Electromechanical Control Technology and Transportation (ICECTT 2024), 2024, Guilin, China

Abstract

Due to the special characteristics of liquefiable solid bulk cargo, solid bulk ship sinking accidents happen frequently. By studying the fluidization risk of liquefiable cargo, the measures for risk factors for preventing the accidents are put forward in this paper. Firstly, the risk factors of fluidization accidents are sorted out, and the accident tree model is constructed. Secondly, Expert evaluation methods are used to rate selected risk factors, and the triangular fuzzy probability of the basic event is calculated by 3σ representation method.Finally, the median method is introduced to determine the influence degree of each basic event on the fluidization accidents. The results show that seven risk factors leading to the occurrence of fluidization accidents are ranked first, such as strong wind and waves in the sea, rain and snow, inadequate cargo protection design, excessive cargo hold capacity, lack of correct emergency measures, shipper's intention to avoid proof and ship's blind transport, indicating that these factors greatly affect the occurrence of fluidization accidents.

(2024) Published by SPIE. Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

Citation Download Citation

Meiling Han, Hanwen Fu, Liang Yu, Lin Cong, and Shining Lu "Risk analysis of liquefied cargo shipping based on fuzzy accident tree", Proc. SPIE 13251, Ninth International Conference on Electromechanical Control Technology and Transportation (ICECTT 2024), 1325140 (28 August 2024); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3039515

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